diff --git a/archive/usrsvforecasts_2024-03-26_24Mar2024.html b/archive/usrsvforecasts_2024-03-26_24Mar2024.html index 08a7a57..68b8a49 100644 --- a/archive/usrsvforecasts_2024-03-26_24Mar2024.html +++ b/archive/usrsvforecasts_2024-03-26_24Mar2024.html @@ -3436,7 +3436,7 @@

US RSV Forecast Hub

}

-Updated 2024/03/26 14:25 +Updated 2024/03/26 20:20

Overview

@@ -3462,8 +3462,8 @@

Overview

National Forecast

RSV hospital admission forecasts for the United States (national-level) for all age groups (0-130yr):

-
- +
+



@@ -3471,8 +3471,8 @@

State- and Age-Specific Forecasts

By State

State-level forecasts

-
- +
+

By Age

@@ -3494,7 +3494,7 @@

Previous Forecasts Archive

updated ground truth data, thus the ground truth data may differ between them as data are back-filled.

Mar -24, 2024 (Epi Week 13)

+24, 2024 (Epi Week 13, this week)

Mar 17, 2024 (Epi Week 12)

Mar diff --git a/archive/usrsvforecasts_2024-03-27_24Mar2024.html b/archive/usrsvforecasts_2024-03-27_24Mar2024.html new file mode 100644 index 0000000..d3f0c95 --- /dev/null +++ b/archive/usrsvforecasts_2024-03-27_24Mar2024.html @@ -0,0 +1,3660 @@ + + + + + + + + + + + + + +US RSV Forecast Hub + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + +

+ + + +
+
+
+
+
+ +
+ + + + + + + + +

+Updated 2024/03/27 20:27 +

+ +
+

National Forecast

+

RSV hospital admission forecasts for the United States +(national-level) for all age groups (0-130yr):

+
+ +



+
+
+

State- and Age-Specific Forecasts

+
+

By State

+

State-level forecasts

+
+ +
+
+

By Age

+

National-level forecasts by Age

+
+
+

By State & Age

+

State-level forecasts by Age

+
+
+
+

Evaluation

+

Evaluation will begin 4 weeks after the first submission.

+
+
+

Previous Forecasts Archive

+

Previous weeks’ forecasts are available in the archive and can be +accessed in the links below. These forecasts are not updated with +updated ground truth data, thus the ground truth data may differ between +them as data are back-filled.

+

Mar +24, 2024 (Epi Week 13, this week)

+

Mar +17, 2024 (Epi Week 12)

+

Mar +10, 2024 (Epi Week 11)

+

Mar +03, 2024 (Epi Week 10)

+

Feb +25, 2024 (Epi Week 9)

+
+
+

RSV-NET Data (ground truth data)

+

The Respiratory Syncytial Virus Hospitalization Surveillance Network +(RSV-NET) is a network that conducts active, population-based +surveillance for laboratory-confirmed RSV-associated hospitalizations in +children younger than 18 years of age and adults. The network currently +includes 58 counties in 12 states that participate in the Emerging +Infections Program (California, Colorado, Connecticut, Georgia, +Maryland, Minnesota, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, and Tennessee) or the +Influenza Hospitalization Surveillance Program (Michigan and Utah). Age- +and state-specific data on laboratory-confirmed RSV hospitalization +rates are available for 12 states and the US from RSV-NET spanning +2017-18 to present (RSV-NET CDC +Webpage). Age-specific weekly rates per 100,000 population are +reported in this system.

+

The data has been standardized and posted on the rsv-forecast-hub +GitHub target-data/ +folder and is updated weekly. The target in this data is the weekly +number of hospitalizations in each given state (inc_hosp variable), for +all ages and for each age group. To obtain counts, we have converted +RSV-NET weekly rates based on state population sizes. This method +assumes that RSV-NET hospitals are representative of the whole state. To +obtain national US counts, we have used the rates provided for the +“overall RSV-NET network”. The data covers 2017-present. Reported age +groups include: [0-6 months], [6-12 months], [1-2 yr], [2-4 yr], [5-17 +yr], [18-49 yr], [50-64 yr], and 65+ years. The standardized dataset +includes week-, state-, and age-specific RSV counts (the target), rates, +and population sizes.

+
+
+

Contributing Teams and Models

+ +++++ + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + +
TeamModelBrief Description
CEPH Lab at Indiana UniversityRtrend RSVA renewal equation method based on Bayesian +estimation of Rt from past hospitalization data.
Columbia UniversityRSV_SVIRSAge-structured SVIRS model coupled with Ensemble +Adjustment Kalman Filter. Inputs CDC RSV-NET, POLYMOD contact matrix, +and seasonal absolute humidity
Predictive Science Inc.Package for Respiratory Disease Open-source +ForecastingWe fit and extrapolate an age-stratified SIR +compartmental model with four levels of natural immunity as well as +infant/elder vaccination.
UGA_flucastINFLAenzaA spatial time-series model that uses the R-INLA +package for estimating forecast posterior distributions.
+
+ + + +
+
+ +
+ + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + diff --git a/archive/usrsvforecasts_2024-03-28_24Mar2024.html b/archive/usrsvforecasts_2024-03-28_24Mar2024.html new file mode 100644 index 0000000..ccd5e17 --- /dev/null +++ b/archive/usrsvforecasts_2024-03-28_24Mar2024.html @@ -0,0 +1,4024 @@ + + + + + + + + + + + + + +US RSV Forecast Hub + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + +
+ + + +
+
+
+
+
+ +
+ + + + + + + + +

+Updated 2024/03/28 00:16 +

+
+

Overview

+

The US RSV Forecast Hub is as a collaborative forecasting effort to +produce weekly short-term forecasts of weekly laboratory-confirmed RSV +hospital admissions for the US and individual states. Each week, +participants are asked to provide national- and jurisdiction-specific +probabilistic forecasts of the weekly number of confirmed RSV +hospitalizations for the following four weeks. The US RSV Forecast Hub +is open to any team willing to provide projections at the right temporal +and spatial scales. We only require that participating teams share point +estimates and uncertainty bounds, along with a short model description +and answers to a list of key questions about design.

+

Those interested in participating, please see the README file in the +Github +repository.

+

If you are interested in longer-term scenario projections of RSV in +the US, please take a look at the US RSV Scenario Modeling +Hub.

+


+
+
+

National Forecast

+

RSV hospital admission forecasts for the United States +(national-level) for all age groups (0-130yr):

+
+ +



+
+
+

State- and Age-Specific Forecasts

+
+

By State

+

State-level forecasts

+
+ +
+
+

By Age

+

National-level forecasts by Age

+
+
+

By State & Age

+

State-level forecasts by Age

+
+
+
+

Evaluation

+
+

WIS

+
+ +
+ +
+
+

Coverage

+ + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + +
+95% Coverage Table +
+Model + +Week 0 Coverage + +1 Wk Coverage + +2 Wk Coverage + +3 Wk Coverage + +4 Wk Coverage +
+CEPH-Rtrend_rsv + +86.11111 + +97.22222 + +95.83333 + +100.00000 + +NaN +
+CU-RSV_SVIRS + +90.00000 + +97.22222 + +98.33333 + +96.66667 + +NaN +
+PSI-PROF + +100.00000 + +100.00000 + +100.00000 + +NaN + +NaN +
+UGA_flucast-INFLAenza + +100.00000 + +100.00000 + +100.00000 + +100.00000 + +100 +
+hub-ensemble + +90.00000 + +97.22222 + +98.33333 + +96.66667 + +NaN +
+
+ +
+
+
+

Previous Forecasts Archive

+

Previous weeks’ forecasts are available in the archive and can be +accessed in the links below. These forecasts are not updated with +updated ground truth data, thus the ground truth data may differ between +them as data are back-filled.

+

Mar +24, 2024 (Epi Week 13, this week)

+

Mar +17, 2024 (Epi Week 12)

+

Mar +10, 2024 (Epi Week 11)

+

Mar +03, 2024 (Epi Week 10)

+

Feb +25, 2024 (Epi Week 9)

+
+
+

RSV-NET Data (ground truth data)

+

The Respiratory Syncytial Virus Hospitalization Surveillance Network +(RSV-NET) is a network that conducts active, population-based +surveillance for laboratory-confirmed RSV-associated hospitalizations in +children younger than 18 years of age and adults. The network currently +includes 58 counties in 12 states that participate in the Emerging +Infections Program (California, Colorado, Connecticut, Georgia, +Maryland, Minnesota, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, and Tennessee) or the +Influenza Hospitalization Surveillance Program (Michigan and Utah). Age- +and state-specific data on laboratory-confirmed RSV hospitalization +rates are available for 12 states and the US from RSV-NET spanning +2017-18 to present (RSV-NET CDC +Webpage). Age-specific weekly rates per 100,000 population are +reported in this system.

+

The data has been standardized and posted on the rsv-forecast-hub +GitHub target-data/ +folder and is updated weekly. The target in this data is the weekly +number of hospitalizations in each given state (inc_hosp variable), for +all ages and for each age group. To obtain counts, we have converted +RSV-NET weekly rates based on state population sizes. This method +assumes that RSV-NET hospitals are representative of the whole state. To +obtain national US counts, we have used the rates provided for the +“overall RSV-NET network”. The data covers 2017-present. Reported age +groups include: [0-6 months], [6-12 months], [1-2 yr], [2-4 yr], [5-17 +yr], [18-49 yr], [50-64 yr], and 65+ years. The standardized dataset +includes week-, state-, and age-specific RSV counts (the target), rates, +and population sizes.

+
+
+

Contributing Teams and Models

+ +++++ + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + +
TeamModelBrief Description
CEPH Lab at Indiana UniversityRtrend RSVA renewal equation method based on Bayesian +estimation of Rt from past hospitalization data.
Columbia UniversityRSV_SVIRSAge-structured SVIRS model coupled with Ensemble +Adjustment Kalman Filter. Inputs CDC RSV-NET, POLYMOD contact matrix, +and seasonal absolute humidity
Predictive Science Inc.Package for Respiratory Disease Open-source +ForecastingWe fit and extrapolate an age-stratified SIR +compartmental model with four levels of natural immunity as well as +infant/elder vaccination.
UGA_flucastINFLAenzaA spatial time-series model that uses the R-INLA +package for estimating forecast posterior distributions.
+
+ + + +
+
+ +
+ + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + diff --git a/index.html b/index.html index 68b8a49..a45dec3 100644 --- a/index.html +++ b/index.html @@ -3237,6 +3237,230 @@ * Licensed under the MIT License. */ "use strict";var n,i="";e.exports=function(t,e){if("string"!=typeof t)throw new TypeError("expected a string");if(1===e)return t;if(2===e)return t+t;var r=t.length*e;if(n!==t||void 0===n)n=t,i="";else if(i.length>=r)return i.substr(0,r);for(;r>i.length&&e>1;)1&e&&(i+=t),e>>=1,t+=t;return i=(i+=t).substr(0,r)}},{}],278:[function(t,e,r){(function(t){(function(){e.exports=t.performance&&t.performance.now?function(){return performance.now()}:Date.now||function(){return+new Date}}).call(this)}).call(this,void 0!==n?n:"undefined"!=typeof self?self:"undefined"!=typeof window?window:{})},{}],279:[function(t,e,r){"use strict";e.exports=function(t){for(var e=t.length,r=t[t.length-1],n=e,i=e-2;i>=0;--i){var a=r,o=t[i];(l=o-((r=a+o)-a))&&(t[--n]=r,r=l)}var s=0;for(i=n;i0){if(a<=0)return 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p=h.prototype;p.setDistanceLimits=function(t,e){t=t>0?Math.log(t):-1/0,e=e>0?Math.log(e):1/0,e=Math.max(e,t),this.radius.bounds[0][0]=t,this.radius.bounds[1][0]=e},p.getDistanceLimits=function(t){var e=this.radius.bounds[0];return t?(t[0]=Math.exp(e[0][0]),t[1]=Math.exp(e[1][0]),t):[Math.exp(e[0][0]),Math.exp(e[1][0])]},p.recalcMatrix=function(t){this.center.curve(t),this.up.curve(t),this.right.curve(t),this.radius.curve(t),this.angle.curve(t);for(var e=this.computedUp,r=this.computedRight,n=0,i=0,a=0;a<3;++a)i+=e[a]*r[a],n+=e[a]*e[a];var l=Math.sqrt(n),u=0;for(a=0;a<3;++a)r[a]-=e[a]*i/n,u+=r[a]*r[a],e[a]/=l;var f=Math.sqrt(u);for(a=0;a<3;++a)r[a]/=f;var h=this.computedToward;o(h,e,r),s(h,h);var p=Math.exp(this.computedRadius[0]),d=this.computedAngle[0],m=this.computedAngle[1],g=Math.cos(d),v=Math.sin(d),y=Math.cos(m),x=Math.sin(m),b=this.computedCenter,_=g*y,w=v*y,T=x,k=-g*x,A=-v*x,M=y,S=this.computedEye,E=this.computedMatrix;for(a=0;a<3;++a){var L=_*r[a]+w*h[a]+T*e[a];E[4*a+1]=k*r[a]+A*h[a]+M*e[a],E[4*a+2]=L,E[4*a+3]=0}var C=E[1],P=E[5],I=E[9],O=E[2],z=E[6],D=E[10],R=P*D-I*z,F=I*O-C*D,B=C*z-P*O,N=c(R,F,B);R/=N,F/=N,B/=N,E[0]=R,E[4]=F,E[8]=B;for(a=0;a<3;++a)S[a]=b[a]+E[2+4*a]*p;for(a=0;a<3;++a){u=0;for(var j=0;j<3;++j)u+=E[a+4*j]*S[j];E[12+a]=-u}E[15]=1},p.getMatrix=function(t,e){this.recalcMatrix(t);var r=this.computedMatrix;if(e){for(var n=0;n<16;++n)e[n]=r[n];return e}return r};var d=[0,0,0];p.rotate=function(t,e,r,n){if(this.angle.move(t,e,r),n){this.recalcMatrix(t);var i=this.computedMatrix;d[0]=i[2],d[1]=i[6],d[2]=i[10];for(var o=this.computedUp,s=this.computedRight,l=this.computedToward,c=0;c<3;++c)i[4*c]=o[c],i[4*c+1]=s[c],i[4*c+2]=l[c];a(i,i,n,d);for(c=0;c<3;++c)o[c]=i[4*c],s[c]=i[4*c+1];this.up.set(t,o[0],o[1],o[2]),this.right.set(t,s[0],s[1],s[2])}},p.pan=function(t,e,r,n){e=e||0,r=r||0,n=n||0,this.recalcMatrix(t);var 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-Updated 2024/03/26 20:20 +Updated 2024/03/28 00:32

Overview

@@ -3462,8 +3686,8 @@

Overview

National Forecast

RSV hospital admission forecasts for the United States (national-level) for all age groups (0-130yr):

-
- +
+



@@ -3471,8 +3695,8 @@

State- and Age-Specific Forecasts

By State

State-level forecasts

-
- +
+

By Age

@@ -3485,7 +3709,147 @@

By State & Age

Evaluation

-

Evaluation will begin 4 weeks after the first submission.

+
+

WIS

+
+ +
+ +
+
+

Coverage

+ + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + +
+95% Coverage Table +
+Model + +Week 0 Coverage + +1 Wk Coverage + +2 Wk Coverage + +3 Wk Coverage + +4 Wk Coverage +
+CEPH-Rtrend_rsv + +86.11111 + +97.22222 + +95.83333 + +100.00000 + +NaN +
+CU-RSV_SVIRS + +90.00000 + +97.22222 + +98.33333 + +96.66667 + +NaN +
+PSI-PROF + +100.00000 + +100.00000 + +100.00000 + +NaN + +NaN +
+UGA_flucast-INFLAenza + +100.00000 + +100.00000 + +100.00000 + +100.00000 + +100 +
+hub-ensemble + +90.00000 + +97.22222 + +98.33333 + +96.66667 + +NaN +
+
+ +

Previous Forecasts Archive

@@ -3493,7 +3857,7 @@

Previous Forecasts Archive

accessed in the links below. These forecasts are not updated with updated ground truth data, thus the ground truth data may differ between them as data are back-filled.

-

Mar +

Mar 24, 2024 (Epi Week 13, this week)

Mar 17, 2024 (Epi Week 12)