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<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
<meta charset="utf-8">
<title>Social protection during the CoViD-19 crisis: A view from Western Europe</title>
<meta name="description" content="Social protection during the CoViD-19 crisis: A view from Western Europe">
<meta name="author" content="Hans-Martin v. Gaudecker">
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<div class="reveal">
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<div class="slides">
<section>
<h1><p>Webinar of the AKES: Implementation of the inclusive social protection scheme in an era of COVID-19 pandemic</p></h1>
<h1>Social protection during the CoViD-19 crisis: A view from Western Europe</h1>
<h3>Hans-Martin v. Gaudecker</h3>
<p>
<h4><p>Universität Bonn & IZA</p></h4><h4></h4>
</p>
</section>
<section id="outline" class="level1">
<h1>Outline</h1>
<ul>
<li>Aggregate Context</li>
<li>Policy reactions</li>
<li>Inequality outcomes</li>
</ul>
</section>
<section id="daily-new-cases-per-million" class="level1">
<h1>Daily new cases per million</h1>
<p><img src="aggregate-data/new-cases.png" style="width:80.0%" alt="image" /></p>
</section>
<section id="cumulative-deaths-per-million" class="level1">
<h1>Cumulative deaths per million</h1>
<p><img src="aggregate-data/cumulative-deaths.png" style="width:80.0%" alt="image" /></p>
</section>
<section id="q-on-q-gdp-growth" class="level1">
<h1>Q-on-Q GDP Growth</h1>
<p><img src="aggregate-data/oecd-gdp-growth.jpg" style="width:80.0%" alt="image" /></p>
</section>
<section id="monthly-unemployment-rate" class="level1">
<h1>Monthly unemployment rate</h1>
<p><img src="aggregate-data/oecd-ue-rate.jpg" style="width:80.0%" alt="image" /></p>
</section>
<section id="pandemic-policy" class="level1">
<h1>Pandemic policy</h1>
<ul>
<li>NL / Germany: Broadly similar
<ul>
<li>Shelter-in-place policies came reasonably early, milder than in other countries</li>
<li>Main difference after summer: Masks</li>
</ul></li>
<li>United Kingdom
<ul>
<li>Shelter-in-place came late, ended up longer and harder</li>
</ul></li>
<li>United States:
<ul>
<li>Late reaction, no clear policy at federal level</li>
<li>States very different</li>
<li>More politics than science</li>
</ul></li>
</ul>
</section>
<section id="social-policy-labour-hoarding" class="level1">
<h1>Social policy: Labour hoarding</h1>
<ul>
<li>Netherlands
<ul>
<li>Gov't reimburses wages partly as a function of lost revenue; no strings attached</li>
<li>Direct payments to (SMEs in) directly affected sectors</li>
<li>Deferral of past tax payments, possibility to offset with 2020 losses</li>
</ul></li>
<li>Germany
<ul>
<li>Gov't reimburses wages conditional on working time reduction</li>
<li>Credit guarantees for firms</li>
<li>Direct payments to (SMEs) in directly affected sectors</li>
<li>Easier access to social transfer programs</li>
</ul></li>
<li>United Kingdom
<ul>
<li>Gov't reimburses part of the wage bill conditional on not working at all</li>
</ul></li>
</ul>
</section>
<section id="data-source" class="level1">
<h1>Data Source</h1>
<ul>
<li>LISS: Online Panel in the Netherlands, running since 2007</li>
<li>Based on probability sample</li>
<li>Roughly 5,000 households / 7,500 individuals</li>
<li>Each month, respondents get 30 minutes of questionnaires
<ul>
<li>Background data on Work, Health, Income, ...</li>
<li>Additional questionnaires designed by researchers</li>
</ul></li>
<li>Around 85% of respondents can be linked to administrative microdata (not today)</li>
</ul>
</section>
<section id="covid-19-surveys" class="level1">
<h1>CoViD-19 surveys</h1>
<ul>
<li>See <a href="https://liss-covid-19-questionnaires-documentation.readthedocs.io/">https://liss-covid-19-questionnaires-documentation.readthedocs.io/</a></li>
<li><strong>March 20-31:</strong> Risk perceptions, behavioural reactions and preferences re social distancing policies, changes in the work and childcare situation, intentions and expectations regarding consumption/savings decisions, mental health</li>
<li><strong>April 6-28:</strong> Risk perceptions, number of personal contacts, changes in the work situation, income and macro expectations</li>
<li><strong>May</strong> Mostly labour, some health, home schooling</li>
<li><strong>June</strong> Mostly labour, lots of job search, how do parents deal with opening of daycares / primary schools?</li>
<li><strong>September</strong>: Risk perceptions, support for policies, changes in the work situation, income and macro expectations</li>
</ul>
</section>
<section id="u.k.-comparison" class="level1">
<h1>U.K. comparison</h1>
<ul>
<li>Understanding Society: Largest household panel in the U.K.</li>
<li>A subset of respondents have received CoViD-19 surveys similar to ours since April</li>
<li>Numbers here are taken from <a href="https://www.economics.ox.ac.uk/materials/working_papers/5413/tcpfhlcovidshort.pdf">Crossley, Fisher, Low (2020)</a></li>
</ul>
</section>
<section id="δ-hours-by-income-quintile" class="level1">
<h1>Δ hours by income quintile</h1>
<p><img src="by-income-quintile/abs_change_hours_by_quintile.jpg" style="width:80.0%" alt="image" /></p>
</section>
<section id="δ-income-by-quintile-p25" class="level1">
<h1>Δ income by quintile, p25</h1>
<p><img src="by-income-quintile/rel_change_hh_income_eqv_by_quintile_q25.jpg" style="width:80.0%" alt="image" /></p>
</section>
<section id="δ-income-by-quintile-p50" class="level1">
<h1>Δ income by quintile, p50</h1>
<p><img src="by-income-quintile/rel_change_hh_income_eqv_by_quintile_q50.jpg" style="width:80.0%" alt="image" /></p>
</section>
<section id="δ-income-by-quintile-p25-1" class="level1">
<h1>Δ income by quintile, p25</h1>
<p><img src="by-income-quintile/rel_change_hh_income_eqv_by_quintile_q75.jpg" style="width:80.0%" alt="image" /></p>
</section>
<section id="same-numbers-for-u.k.-δ-may-feb-2020" class="level1">
<h1>Same numbers for U.K., Δ May, Feb 2020</h1>
<table style="width:58%;">
<colgroup>
<col style="width: 25%" />
<col style="width: 11%" />
<col style="width: 11%" />
<col style="width: 11%" />
</colgroup>
<thead>
<tr class="header">
<th>Income quintile</th>
<th>p25</th>
<th>p50</th>
<th>p75</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td>1</td>
<td>-0.6</td>
<td>-0.13</td>
<td>0.04</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td>2</td>
<td>-0.36</td>
<td>-0.06</td>
<td>0.07</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td>3</td>
<td>-0.34</td>
<td>-0.03</td>
<td>0.04</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td>4</td>
<td>-0.43</td>
<td>-0.08</td>
<td>0.04</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td>5</td>
<td>-0.39</td>
<td>-0.02</td>
<td>0.08</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</section>
<section id="conclusion" class="level1">
<h1>Conclusion</h1>
<ul>
<li>Inequality impact an order of magnitude lower in NL (≅DE) compared to U.K. (≅U.S.)</li>
<li>Ideal social policy is preserving employment relations in the short run (see also <a href="https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/mac.20130028">Jung & Kuester, 2015</a>), not worrying about hours worked</li>
<li>In the short run,
<ul>
<li>there is no trade-off economy / controlling the pandemic.</li>
<li>short lockdowns mitigate the inequality impact</li>
</ul></li>
<li>Large option value of functioning social insurance systems: Know how to reach vulnerable parts of the population</li>
</ul>
</section>
</div>
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