Interpretation

Relevance of comparing error distributions

Compare with	TB	WG	WB
TG	Y	Y	N
TB	.	N	Y
WG	.	.	Y
WB	.	.	.

Legend:

Condition	Expectation	Interpretation
$TG > TB$	Unexpected	Novel tree prior is more related to best candidate than hand-picked tree prior
$TG ≈ TB$	Possible	Hand-picked tree prior is just as suitable as the best candidate tree prior
$TG < TB$	Expected	Hand-picked tree prior is the most related tree prior
$TG > WG$	Unknown	Novel tree prior important
$TG ≈ WG$	Unknown	Novel tree prior unimportant
$TG < WG$	Unexpected	Twinning procedure increases inference errors when using hand-picked tree prior
$TB > WB$	Expected	Impact of novel tree prior cannot be compensated for by model selection: twin tree with low likelihood?
$TB ≈ WB$	Possible	Best candidate tree priors perform equally well in true and twin tree: true and twin tree similar?
$TB < WB$	Unexpected	Twinning procedure increases inference errors when using best tree prior candidate
$WG > WB$	Unexpected	Hand-picked tree prior (that equals the twinning tree prior!) worse than best candidate tree prior
$WG ≈ WB$	Possible	Twin tree fits equally well to the hand-picked and best candidate tree prior
$WG < WB$	Expected	Hand-pick tree prior (that equals the twinning tree prior) performs as expected

This interpretation assumes that the operators ($<$, $\approx$ and $>$) to compare distributions are defined.

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